Walmart bets on membership program to navigate tariffs and recession risks
Shreedhar Rathi | Apr 09, 2025, 00:24 IST
Walmart's subscription service, Walmart+, is emerging as a crucial asset amid rising tariffs and recession fears, accounting for nearly half of the retailer's online spending. Members shop more frequently and spend significantly more than non-members, bolstering Walmart's e-commerce growth.
As rising tariffs and growing fears of a global recession weigh on U.S. retailers, Walmart may have found a stabilizing force in its subscription-based membership service, Walmart+.
Walmart+ members now account for nearly half of all spending across the retailer’s website and app in the U.S., according to data from the most recent fiscal year, which ended in late January. These subscribers tend to shop more frequently and spend nearly three times as much as non-members.
The growth of Walmart+ comes at a pivotal moment. Earlier this year, Walmart issued a cautious outlook for 2025, which was followed by President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports from countries including China, Vietnam, and Cambodia—key supply chain regions for many U.S. retailers. The tariffs, combined with retaliatory trade measures, have raised concerns about a potential global economic downturn.
As the largest grocery retailer in the U.S., Walmart is generally well-positioned to weather economic turbulence. However, Walmart+ is emerging as a strategic asset, offering an additional stream of revenue while also increasing customer retention and engagement.
The membership program has attracted a growing number of budget-conscious shoppers, including those enrolled in Walmart+ Assist, which offers a discounted rate to customers receiving government aid. Walmart has used insights from its subscribers to guide advertising strategies and optimize inventory—contributing to increased profitability.
Walmart is expected to provide further updates on Walmart+ and its expanding alternative revenue streams, including its advertising business, during an investor event this week in Dallas. Analysts anticipate that the retailer will also address broader economic conditions and the effects of new trade policies.
Launched nearly five years ago, Walmart+ offers members perks like free same-day grocery delivery, fuel discounts, free shipping on online orders, and access to a Paramount+ subscription. The service, priced at $98 annually or $12.95 per month, was introduced as a direct competitor to Amazon Prime and has helped power Walmart’s e-commerce growth. The company has now reported 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit online sales growth in the U.S., including a 20% increase in the latest quarter.
Later this month, Walmart will launch Walmart+ Week, a new promotional event offering deeper discounts and additional perks for subscribers, similar to Amazon's Prime Day.
While Walmart does not publicly share subscriber counts, market research firm CIRP estimates that Walmart+ had roughly 25 million members by the end of January—more than double its estimated membership in late 2022. By comparison, Amazon Prime remains dominant with an estimated 190 million U.S. members, though Walmart is steadily gaining ground. Three years ago, just 23% of Walmart.com shoppers had a Walmart+ membership; that figure has since climbed to 43%.
Walmart’s annual forecast, issued in February before Trump’s tariff expansion, projected net sales growth between 3% and 4%, and adjusted operating income growth between 3.5% and 5.5% on a constant currency basis. That outlook included headwinds from the acquisition of Vizio and the leap year. The company also forecast adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share.
The timing of the tariffs, set to escalate further this week, has added uncertainty to the retail landscape. Already, consumer sentiment had dipped in March to its lowest point since 2022, according to the University of Michigan. Analysts warn that the added costs from import duties could lead to higher prices and strained consumer budgets.
Despite these pressures, Walmart’s scale and status as a value-focused retailer give it unique advantages. Analysts point to the company’s ability to negotiate with suppliers, absorb cost increases, and attract price-sensitive shoppers—including those from higher-income brackets looking to cut spending.
With new revenue channels like Walmart+ and advertising contributing to stronger margins and deeper customer loyalty, Walmart appears better equipped than many of its peers to navigate the shifting economic environment.
Walmart+ members now account for nearly half of all spending across the retailer’s website and app in the U.S., according to data from the most recent fiscal year, which ended in late January. These subscribers tend to shop more frequently and spend nearly three times as much as non-members.
The growth of Walmart+ comes at a pivotal moment. Earlier this year, Walmart issued a cautious outlook for 2025, which was followed by President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports from countries including China, Vietnam, and Cambodia—key supply chain regions for many U.S. retailers. The tariffs, combined with retaliatory trade measures, have raised concerns about a potential global economic downturn.
As the largest grocery retailer in the U.S., Walmart is generally well-positioned to weather economic turbulence. However, Walmart+ is emerging as a strategic asset, offering an additional stream of revenue while also increasing customer retention and engagement.
The membership program has attracted a growing number of budget-conscious shoppers, including those enrolled in Walmart+ Assist, which offers a discounted rate to customers receiving government aid. Walmart has used insights from its subscribers to guide advertising strategies and optimize inventory—contributing to increased profitability.
Walmart is expected to provide further updates on Walmart+ and its expanding alternative revenue streams, including its advertising business, during an investor event this week in Dallas. Analysts anticipate that the retailer will also address broader economic conditions and the effects of new trade policies.
Launched nearly five years ago, Walmart+ offers members perks like free same-day grocery delivery, fuel discounts, free shipping on online orders, and access to a Paramount+ subscription. The service, priced at $98 annually or $12.95 per month, was introduced as a direct competitor to Amazon Prime and has helped power Walmart’s e-commerce growth. The company has now reported 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit online sales growth in the U.S., including a 20% increase in the latest quarter.
Later this month, Walmart will launch Walmart+ Week, a new promotional event offering deeper discounts and additional perks for subscribers, similar to Amazon's Prime Day.
While Walmart does not publicly share subscriber counts, market research firm CIRP estimates that Walmart+ had roughly 25 million members by the end of January—more than double its estimated membership in late 2022. By comparison, Amazon Prime remains dominant with an estimated 190 million U.S. members, though Walmart is steadily gaining ground. Three years ago, just 23% of Walmart.com shoppers had a Walmart+ membership; that figure has since climbed to 43%.
Walmart’s annual forecast, issued in February before Trump’s tariff expansion, projected net sales growth between 3% and 4%, and adjusted operating income growth between 3.5% and 5.5% on a constant currency basis. That outlook included headwinds from the acquisition of Vizio and the leap year. The company also forecast adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share.
The timing of the tariffs, set to escalate further this week, has added uncertainty to the retail landscape. Already, consumer sentiment had dipped in March to its lowest point since 2022, according to the University of Michigan. Analysts warn that the added costs from import duties could lead to higher prices and strained consumer budgets.
Despite these pressures, Walmart’s scale and status as a value-focused retailer give it unique advantages. Analysts point to the company’s ability to negotiate with suppliers, absorb cost increases, and attract price-sensitive shoppers—including those from higher-income brackets looking to cut spending.
With new revenue channels like Walmart+ and advertising contributing to stronger margins and deeper customer loyalty, Walmart appears better equipped than many of its peers to navigate the shifting economic environment.