Oregon's underwater Volcano is stirring and scientists think it might erupt this year
Pranjal Chandra | May 08, 2025, 23:53 IST
( Image credit : TIL Creatives )
An underwater volcano named Axial Seamount, located off Oregon's coast, may erupt soon. Scientists have been monitoring it for decades. Seismic activity and swelling indicate magma movement. This would be its fourth eruption in 30 years. The eruption poses no threat to humans. Researchers hope to learn more about volcanic behavior. This event could improve eruption forecasting.
Deep beneath the Pacific Ocean, about 300 miles off Oregon’s coastline, a restless giant is beginning to wake up.
Axial Seamount, a massive underwater volcano that scientists have been monitoring for decades, is showing signs of an impending eruption its fourth in under 30 years. And while it may sound dramatic, experts say it’s one of the safest eruptions on Earth to study.
Recent months have seen a surge in seismic activity around Axial, with researchers detecting more than 1,000 small quakes per day in late March and early April. The volcano itself is also swelling, a classic indicator that molten rock is pooling beneath the surface.
“The seafloor is actually rising,” said Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University who has been studying Axial for over three decades. “That’s a big signal.”
The activity is part of what scientists believe is a predictable cycle. Axial Seamount erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015 and Chadwick says all signs point to a fourth eruption occurring sometime this year.
Unlike explosive volcanoes on land, Axial’s eruptions are relatively gentle, thanks to its fluid lava and deepwater location. The volcano lies about one mile beneath the ocean surface, which helps keep the action contained and undetectable to humans.
“There’s no explosion or ash cloud,” Chadwick explained. “Even if you were in a boat right above it, you probably wouldn’t know it was erupting.”
But beneath the waves, the show is massive. During Axial’s 2015 eruption, one lava flow alone measured 450 feet thick that’s roughly two-thirds the height of Seattle’s Space Needle.
Axial Seamount is unusual even by geological standards. It's situated directly on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, where two tectonic plates the Juan de Fuca and Pacific are slowly pulling apart. This creates an ideal environment for constant volcanic activity and the formation of fresh ocean crust.
What makes Axial even more valuable to scientists is its predictability. Most volcanoes are chaotic, but Axial appears to follow a measurable rhythm, making it a rare natural laboratory for testing eruption forecasts.
“On land, a bad forecast can cost people money, time, and peace of mind,” said Scott Nooner, a geophysicist at the University of North Carolina Wilmington. “But out here, nobody’s getting evacuated. We can test our models without the human consequences.”
Despite the mounting data and promising signs, accurately predicting volcanic eruptions remains one of geoscience’s biggest challenges.
“There’s still so much we don’t know about what really triggers an eruption,” Nooner said. “Magma doesn’t always behave the way we expect.”
Short-term predictionsv hours or days in advance have improved in recent years. But longer-term forecasts are still unreliable, even for a volcano as well-behaved as Axial.
That’s why researchers are watching this year’s activity so closely. If Axial erupts on schedule, it could validate their models and improve global forecasting tools for more dangerous volcanoes.
If Axial Seamount erupts in 2025, no one on land will be affected. There’s no tsunami risk, no ash plumes, and no disruption to coastal life.
Still, for the scientific community, it’s a moment of high-stakes observation. With seafloor sensors in place and years of data behind them, researchers are hoping this eruption helps unlock the secrets of Earth’s volcanic behavior without putting anyone in harm’s way.
Axial Seamount, a massive underwater volcano that scientists have been monitoring for decades, is showing signs of an impending eruption its fourth in under 30 years. And while it may sound dramatic, experts say it’s one of the safest eruptions on Earth to study.
Earthquakes and swelling signal magma on the move
“The seafloor is actually rising,” said Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University who has been studying Axial for over three decades. “That’s a big signal.”
The activity is part of what scientists believe is a predictable cycle. Axial Seamount erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015 and Chadwick says all signs point to a fourth eruption occurring sometime this year.
A front-row seat to a harmless eruption
“There’s no explosion or ash cloud,” Chadwick explained. “Even if you were in a boat right above it, you probably wouldn’t know it was erupting.”
But beneath the waves, the show is massive. During Axial’s 2015 eruption, one lava flow alone measured 450 feet thick that’s roughly two-thirds the height of Seattle’s Space Needle.
Why Axial is a Volcanic oddball
What makes Axial even more valuable to scientists is its predictability. Most volcanoes are chaotic, but Axial appears to follow a measurable rhythm, making it a rare natural laboratory for testing eruption forecasts.
“On land, a bad forecast can cost people money, time, and peace of mind,” said Scott Nooner, a geophysicist at the University of North Carolina Wilmington. “But out here, nobody’s getting evacuated. We can test our models without the human consequences.”
Forecasting eruptions: still an inexact science
“There’s still so much we don’t know about what really triggers an eruption,” Nooner said. “Magma doesn’t always behave the way we expect.”
Short-term predictionsv hours or days in advance have improved in recent years. But longer-term forecasts are still unreliable, even for a volcano as well-behaved as Axial.
That’s why researchers are watching this year’s activity so closely. If Axial erupts on schedule, it could validate their models and improve global forecasting tools for more dangerous volcanoes.
So should you worry? not even a little
Still, for the scientific community, it’s a moment of high-stakes observation. With seafloor sensors in place and years of data behind them, researchers are hoping this eruption helps unlock the secrets of Earth’s volcanic behavior without putting anyone in harm’s way.