Final push for March Madness NCAA bubble watch
Alona Yadav | Mar 12, 2025, 17:11 IST
( Image credit : AP )
Several NCAA basketball teams are on the bubble for the tournament, needing strong performances in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Key teams include San Diego State, VCU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Xavier, and Indiana. Others like Boise State and North Carolina require exceptional showings. Win now or risk missing March Madness.
The pressure is mounting for college basketball teams sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble. With conference tournaments underway, these teams face a critical week that could determine their March Madness fate.
For bubble teams, winning a conference tournament guarantees an automatic bid, but that's a tall order. More realistically, they need strong showings with multiple quality wins to impress the selection committee. A first-round exit, however, could spell disaster for their tournament hopes.
According to USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, several teams find themselves in precarious positions as they begin their conference tournament play this week:
San Diego State (21-8, 14-6) enters the Mountain West tournament with work to do after being swept by UNLV during the regular season. Currently projected as a No. 11 seed with a NET Ranking of 51, the Aztecs face another bubble team, Boise State, in the quarterfinals. A win there would significantly strengthen their case.
Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 15-3) might need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament despite entering as the top seed. Their regular-season finale loss to Dayton damaged their resume, leaving them with a 7-5 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games combined—typically insufficient for mid-major teams. VCU is currently projected as a No. 11 seed.
Ohio State (17-14, 9-11) faces a challenging path as the 10th seed in the Big Ten tournament. The Buckeyes, projected in the "First Four," must defeat Iowa in the opening round before facing Illinois. Their six Quad 1 wins provide hope, but winning both games may be necessary to secure their spot.
Oklahoma (19-12, 6-12) gained momentum with crucial victories over Missouri and Texas, moving them into the First Four projection. The Sooners open SEC tournament play against Georgia, with a potential second-round matchup against Kentucky. Their six Quad 1 wins bolster their case, but another quality win would help tremendously.
Xavier (21-10, 13-7) enters the Big East tournament on a seven-game winning streak but still struggles with a 1-8 Quad 1 record. Their quarterfinal matchup against Marquette represents a critical opportunity to add another quality win and solidify their position.
Indiana (19-12, 10-10) holds the final spot in the projected tournament field. While their 12 Quad 1 losses aren't ideal, a perfect 5-0 record in Quad 2 games keeps them in contention. Their second-round Big Ten tournament game against Oregon could ultimately determine their fate.
Just outside the projected field, teams like Boise State, Texas, Colorado State, and North Carolina need exceptional conference tournament performances to earn bids. Colorado State enters on a seven-game winning streak, while North Carolina's tournament hopes are fading after a disappointing regular season finale against Duke.
For all these teams, the message is clear: win now or watch March Madness from home. With conference tournaments reaching their climax and Selection Sunday approaching, every game takes on monumental importance for programs fighting to secure their place in college basketball's showcase event.
For bubble teams, winning a conference tournament guarantees an automatic bid, but that's a tall order. More realistically, they need strong showings with multiple quality wins to impress the selection committee. A first-round exit, however, could spell disaster for their tournament hopes.
According to USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, several teams find themselves in precarious positions as they begin their conference tournament play this week:
San Diego State (21-8, 14-6) enters the Mountain West tournament with work to do after being swept by UNLV during the regular season. Currently projected as a No. 11 seed with a NET Ranking of 51, the Aztecs face another bubble team, Boise State, in the quarterfinals. A win there would significantly strengthen their case.
Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 15-3) might need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament despite entering as the top seed. Their regular-season finale loss to Dayton damaged their resume, leaving them with a 7-5 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games combined—typically insufficient for mid-major teams. VCU is currently projected as a No. 11 seed.
Ohio State (17-14, 9-11) faces a challenging path as the 10th seed in the Big Ten tournament. The Buckeyes, projected in the "First Four," must defeat Iowa in the opening round before facing Illinois. Their six Quad 1 wins provide hope, but winning both games may be necessary to secure their spot.
Oklahoma (19-12, 6-12) gained momentum with crucial victories over Missouri and Texas, moving them into the First Four projection. The Sooners open SEC tournament play against Georgia, with a potential second-round matchup against Kentucky. Their six Quad 1 wins bolster their case, but another quality win would help tremendously.
Xavier (21-10, 13-7) enters the Big East tournament on a seven-game winning streak but still struggles with a 1-8 Quad 1 record. Their quarterfinal matchup against Marquette represents a critical opportunity to add another quality win and solidify their position.
Indiana (19-12, 10-10) holds the final spot in the projected tournament field. While their 12 Quad 1 losses aren't ideal, a perfect 5-0 record in Quad 2 games keeps them in contention. Their second-round Big Ten tournament game against Oregon could ultimately determine their fate.
Just outside the projected field, teams like Boise State, Texas, Colorado State, and North Carolina need exceptional conference tournament performances to earn bids. Colorado State enters on a seven-game winning streak, while North Carolina's tournament hopes are fading after a disappointing regular season finale against Duke.
For all these teams, the message is clear: win now or watch March Madness from home. With conference tournaments reaching their climax and Selection Sunday approaching, every game takes on monumental importance for programs fighting to secure their place in college basketball's showcase event.