Fact check: The truth about Canada’s role in U.S. trade, migration, and fentanyl trafficking

Shreeaa Rathi | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Feb 04, 2025, 23:55 IST
US-Canada: A Partnership in Progress
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President Trump’s concerns about Canada’s impact on U.S. trade, fentanyl trafficking, migration, and defense spending are significantly exaggerated. Data shows minimal fentanyl smuggling from Canada, a low number of illegal border crossings compared to Mexico, a much lower trade deficit than claimed, and consistent military contributions despite not meeting NATO’s 2% GDP target.


President Donald Trump has frequently cited concerns about Canada to justify his decision to impose tariffs on imports from the country. These concerns include the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, fentanyl trafficking, illegal migration, and defense spending. However, while some of these issues have factual basis, Trump has significantly exaggerated their scale and impact.

Canada’s Role in U.S. Fentanyl Trafficking Is Minimal

Trump has repeatedly grouped Canada and Mexico together when discussing fentanyl smuggling into the United States. Shortly after his inauguration, he stated, “The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive.” However, data from U.S. border authorities tells a different story.

In the 2024 fiscal year, the U.S. seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl at its borders. Of this total, only 43 pounds—just 0.2%—came from the Canadian border, whereas 21,148 pounds (96.6%) were seized at the Mexican border. This trend continued in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with only 10 pounds seized at the northern border compared to 4,409 pounds at the southern border.

While fentanyl seizures at the Canadian border have risen slightly—from 2 pounds in 2023 to 43 pounds in 2024—the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment did not even mention Canada. In contrast, Mexico was referenced 86 times. A 2022 congressional report also confirmed that Canada is not a major source of fentanyl or precursor chemicals for the U.S.

In response to concerns, the Canadian government introduced new measures in December 2024, increasing funding for border detection technologies and canine drug-detection teams to combat trafficking.

Migration From Canada Remains Low Compared to Mexico

Trump has also criticized Canada for allowing migrants to cross into the U.S., stating that “millions and millions” of people have entered illegally from the north. However, official figures paint a different picture.

In fiscal year 2024, U.S. border authorities recorded approximately 2.9 million migrant encounters. Of these, 198,929 (6.9%) were at the Canadian border. When looking specifically at U.S. Border Patrol encounters at locations other than legal ports of entry, only 23,721 (1.5%) took place at the northern border.

There has been an increase in migration from Canada, with numbers rising from just 2,238 encounters in 2022 to over 23,000 in 2024. This increase is largely attributed to migrants from countries like India, who fly to Canada before attempting to cross into the U.S. Despite this spike, illegal crossings from Mexico remain vastly higher.

U.S. Trade Deficit With Canada Is Far Smaller Than Trump Claims

Trump has also exaggerated the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, claiming it is “getting close to $200 billion.” Official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis contradicts this claim.

In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was $40.6 billion when including goods and services. Even when considering only goods, the deficit was $72.3 billion—far from Trump’s $200 billion figure.

Much of this deficit stems from U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil. In 2023, the U.S. imported an average of 3.9 million barrels of Canadian oil per day. This supply is essential for American refineries, which are designed to process heavy crude, a resource the U.S. does not produce in large quantities. Energy experts note that without Canadian oil, many U.S. refineries would struggle to operate efficiently.

Canada’s Defense Spending and Military Contributions

Trump has long criticized Canada and other NATO allies for failing to meet the organization’s defense spending guidelines. He has gone as far as to claim that Canada spends “less than 1%” of its GDP on defense and that the country “doesn’t, essentially, have a military.”

While it is true that Canada has not met NATO’s 2% GDP target, its actual spending in 2024 was 1.37%—not below 1%, as Trump claimed. Canada ranks fifth lowest among NATO’s 31 member nations in terms of GDP percentage allocated to defense, but in absolute dollars, it remains one of the alliance’s top spenders.

Canada’s military, which has over 63,000 active personnel and 20,000 reservists, plays a key role in global security efforts. It operates jointly with the U.S. in NORAD and has participated in NATO-led missions in Latvia, the South China Sea, Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. Canada has also fought alongside the U.S. in multiple conflicts, including both World Wars, the Korean War, and the Gulf War.

Stephen Saideman, a NATO expert at Carleton University, noted that while Canada’s military is not the largest, it has consistently made significant contributions, such as leading NATO efforts in Latvia and operating one of the toughest combat zones in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

While Trump has raised valid concerns about U.S.-Canada trade, migration, and defense, his claims often exaggerate the scale of these issues. Canada’s role in fentanyl trafficking is minimal compared to Mexico, its contribution to illegal migration remains small, and its trade deficit with the U.S. is far lower than Trump suggests. On defense, while Canada has not met NATO’s spending target, it remains an active and significant military ally. These facts are essential to consider when evaluating U.S.-Canada relations.



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