Russia faces looming labor crisis as population plunges: 11 million workers at risk by 2030
TOI World Desk | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Jul 16, 2025, 00:04 IST
( Image credit : AP, TOIGLOBAL )
Russia is facing a significant workforce crisis. The labor minister warns of a potential loss of 11 million workers by 2030. This is due to low birth rates, retirements, and the impact of the Ukraine conflict. The country's population is declining. The government is trying to reverse this trend with incentives. The labor shortage threatens Russia's economic stability.
Russia is on the brink of a major workforce collapse, with its Labor Minister warning that nearly 11 million workers could vanish from the job market by the end of this decade. A mix of mass retirements, plunging birth rates, and the ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine are fueling the crisis, which experts warn could hobble Russia’s economy for decades.
Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov delivered the stark forecast during a recent demographic and healthcare policy meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The announcement follows years of population decline in Russia, where the number of annual births dropped to 1.22 million in 2024—the lowest since 1999—while deaths surged by 3.3 percent to 1.82 million.
Russia’s demographic struggles are not new, but the war in Ukraine has made things significantly worse. Tens of thousands of young Russians have been killed or severely wounded, and a wave of educated professionals has fled the country, either to avoid the draft or in protest against the war. As a result, the workforce has become critically strained, forcing companies to recruit retirees and even teenagers to keep operations afloat.
The Kremlin is now racing against time to reverse the population decline. President Putin has pushed for policies that reward large families with cash incentives and tax benefits. In an unusual appeal, he even encouraged Russian women to have up to eight children. But despite these measures, the downward trend continues.
“The labor shortage isn’t just a temporary hiccup,” Kotyakov warned. “It threatens Russia’s economic stability well beyond the war and sanctions.”
The implications are already visible. Rising wages and reduced labor supply are pushing up inflation, making everyday goods more expensive and eroding consumer spending power. In late 2023, the Russian economy was overheating due to high military spending and a labor crunch. But that momentum appears to be fading. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov admitted last month that the country may be nearing a recession.
According to the Atlantic Council, Russia’s population could be slashed in half by the year 2100 if current trends persist. Such a scenario would leave the country economically and strategically vulnerable, especially as it grapples with the long-term fallout of international sanctions and geopolitical isolation.
For American observers, Russia’s demographic cliff offers a revealing glimpse into how population policy, war, and economic planning intersect. It also serves as a cautionary tale for countries facing aging populations, declining fertility, and political turmoil. While the United States faces its own demographic challenges, Russia’s crisis is unfolding with extraordinary speed—and potentially devastating consequences.
Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov delivered the stark forecast during a recent demographic and healthcare policy meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The announcement follows years of population decline in Russia, where the number of annual births dropped to 1.22 million in 2024—the lowest since 1999—while deaths surged by 3.3 percent to 1.82 million.
Russia’s demographic struggles are not new, but the war in Ukraine has made things significantly worse. Tens of thousands of young Russians have been killed or severely wounded, and a wave of educated professionals has fled the country, either to avoid the draft or in protest against the war. As a result, the workforce has become critically strained, forcing companies to recruit retirees and even teenagers to keep operations afloat.
The Kremlin is now racing against time to reverse the population decline. President Putin has pushed for policies that reward large families with cash incentives and tax benefits. In an unusual appeal, he even encouraged Russian women to have up to eight children. But despite these measures, the downward trend continues.
“The labor shortage isn’t just a temporary hiccup,” Kotyakov warned. “It threatens Russia’s economic stability well beyond the war and sanctions.”
The implications are already visible. Rising wages and reduced labor supply are pushing up inflation, making everyday goods more expensive and eroding consumer spending power. In late 2023, the Russian economy was overheating due to high military spending and a labor crunch. But that momentum appears to be fading. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov admitted last month that the country may be nearing a recession.
According to the Atlantic Council, Russia’s population could be slashed in half by the year 2100 if current trends persist. Such a scenario would leave the country economically and strategically vulnerable, especially as it grapples with the long-term fallout of international sanctions and geopolitical isolation.
For American observers, Russia’s demographic cliff offers a revealing glimpse into how population policy, war, and economic planning intersect. It also serves as a cautionary tale for countries facing aging populations, declining fertility, and political turmoil. While the United States faces its own demographic challenges, Russia’s crisis is unfolding with extraordinary speed—and potentially devastating consequences.